As we near the halfway point of the 2018 NFL season and the value of players drafted in the Spring becomes apparent, it is time to analyze the results of the Carson Wentz trade of 2016. Did the Browns or Eagles get the better end of the deal? Is the Browns’ plan working? Are the Brown’s meager success and positive outlook this season due to the draft capital acquired? What should the Browns have done now knowing how good Wentz is and how those acquired picks were used? Should they have taken Wentz?
We’ll look at all of those questions as they impact the Browns but first, let’s set some ground rules.
- The past success or failure of the previous two seasons is strongly correlated to, but not dictated by the decisions made in 2016.
- The situation of each franchise does factor into the success or failure of a player both in their surrounding players and coaching staff.
- The current health of players and roster status should also influence the discussion.
Did the Browns or Eagles get the better end of the Carson Wentz trade?
The Cleveland Browns hired Sashi Brown as the General manager and Hue Jackson as Head Coach in the 2016 Offseason in hopes of fixing the Browns. That plan may be working but it has cost Sashi Brown his job and caused many to call for the Browns to #fireHue with 10 games remaining in the 2018 NFL season. Whether or not the Browns or Eagles won the trade may be a matter of timing.
Looking at the 2016 and 2017 seasons, the latter which resulted in an 0-16 season for the Browns and a Super Bowl victory for the Eagles, it is clear that the Eagles won the trade. But measuring a trade in only the short-term may often reflect value for the team who took the pick since trading away a pick is an investment in the future and not the present.
Looking at Carson Wentz’s development may also signal signs of a franchise quarterback, the kind of player that the Browns have been looking for since they returned in 1999 as an expansion team. That kind of player both helps in the short-term and the long-term. This fact is why many were frustrated with the Browns trading the pick. In order to understand the value attached to trading that pick, we must first see what that pick has turned into.
Below are the players that the Browns ended up with along with their current status in the NFL.
,Corey Coleman (Currently a New York Giant after being traded for a 7th round pick and subsequently dropped multiple times)
Shon Coleman (Traded to 49ers for a 7th round pick in 2019)
Cody Kessler (Since traded for a 7th round pick which was used in acquiring Jarvis Landry)
Derrick Kindred (Contributing player)
Spencer Drango (Waived and acquired by Chargers)
Ricardo Louis (Contributing player in 2016 and 2017 but suffered injury before 2018 season)
Jordan Payton (Since released and remain
Jabrill Peppers (Starter)
Deshone Kizer (Since traded, along with a 4th round pick, for starter Damarious Randall and a 5th round pick)
Denzel Ward (Starter)
Chad Thomas ( Rookie that has played in 3 games but listed 3rd on depth chart)
To summarize the results of the trade, the Browns received 3 contributing players and 3 starters and the Eagles received Carson Wentz. Now the Carson Wentz trade wasn’t the sole reason for the Browns ending up with 6 players on their current roster, but it did provide the capital to make more moves which then resulted in the players listed above. Like most rebuilding GMs (Sam Hinkie also comes to mind), Brown was terminated in the middle of the 0-16 season as the cupboard was left apparently too bare for the Browns to win a single game. The pressures of winning now and winning later rarely leave the rebuilding regime intact to reap the fruits of the harvest.
Sashi Brown may not have reaped the rewards of his analytics approach, but John Dorsey certainly did as he inherited a treasure trove of draft capital and has been active both in the offseason and during the 2018 season. While things are looking up for the Browns as they have seemingly found their franchise quarterback, it still seems that the bar for the success of the trade should be a Super Bowl championship. Browns fans may consider the trade a wash if the players resulting from the trade contribute to relevant Browns football moving forward, but is the recent success and apparent culture shift related to the trade?
It took 31 losses but the Browns are back
Simply put, yes, the recent success and culture change would not have been possible had the Browns not reached the depths they did. Maybe it was a sacrifice to the football gods or maybe it cost owner Jimmy Haslam his pride, but the Browns seem to have found the stability we outlined was needed to turn the Browns around.
Browns fans have a long list of “what-ifs” going back to “the fumble” and “the drive” and the laundry list of quarterbacks to start since ’99. Passing on Carson Wentz certainly is on that list, but the Browns have begun to act differently as a franchise than they have in years past.
For one, they didn’t fire their Head Coach after 2 seasons for the first time in almost 10 years. Haslam appears to have taken a step back from meddling in team matters since hiring Dorsey (albeit he married Jackson to Dorsey but Dorsey agreed while knowing that was a stipulation). Playcalling has a more traditional structure with the coordinators calling plays and allowing the head coach to focus on bigger decisions. Lastly, they drafted a QB with a top-10 pick for the first time since drafting Tim Couch. Keep an eye on that fact since the Browns’ only playoff appearance since reactivation occurred at the helm of Couch in the 2002 season who was drafted first overall in the 1999 NFL Draft. Insanity is making the same decisions and expecting different results. It appears the Browns have changed what they can change and when you were a 0-16 team last year, any change is warmly welcomed. So should the Browns have taken Wentz?
What should have the Browns done?
If the Cleveland Browns had taken Carson Wentz, they would have won the Super Bowl by now, right? Wrong. Carson Wentz might have worked out for the Eagles but there are many factors surrounding his performance with them that simply would not have been present with the Browns. Doug Pederson was able to craft an offense with already-present talent. Also, it wasn’t apparent at the time but the Eagles defense came together at the right time to help carry them through the playoffs after Carson missed the rest of the season due to injury. Quite frankly, hypotheticals and what-ifs keep one focused on the past instead of the future, where Cleveland hopes might mean climbing out of the dumpster and into the playoffs.
Ironically, the Browns would not be primed for that future had they not suffered two horribly ugly seasons back-to-back. The Browns with Wentz in 2016 would likely have had a better record than 1-15. They would not have been able to select pass rusher Myles Garret and strong safety Jabrill Peppers (he really shouldn’t be returning kicks). The Browns would definitely have not ended up 0-16 in 2017 with Wentz under center and would not have drafted Baker Mayfield or Denzel Ward the following draft.
Along with having higher picks to spend on defense due to their horrendous record, the Browns had more picks due to the Wentz trade. They used these picks throughout the 2016, 2017, and 2018 offseasons to use on the players listed above and also be able to draft the core of their defense. That core includes the likes of Emmanuel Ogbah, Larry Ogunjobi, Joe
It might be too early to say it, but for the Browns, the Carson Wentz trade was worth it. Regardless of the excruciating chronic pain of the past two decades, which reached a loud roar in 2016 and 2017, the assets from the Carson Wentz trade and the past three drafts have set the Browns up to no longer endure the pain but rather inflict it.